Study on disruption of mobility sector

• Clear favorite: Battery-powered electric vehicles ahead of plug-in hybrids
• Amazing growth potential for connected car services
• Own car more important again for younger people

On behalf of BNP Paribas Cardif in Germany, the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) analysed central aspects of the current disruption in the mobility industry as part of its study “The future of mobility – future trends in the field of electromobility, connected car and mobility services” (November 2022). The innovation developments in electromobility, connected car and mobility services are analysed and a 2030 scenario for these areas is drawn. Surprising are the growth dimensions in certain areas and the unexpected preferences among younger respondents. The study follows up on the 2018 study “Financing and protection of new mobility concepts”.

Electromobility – New registrations of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEV) exceed registrations of plug-in hybrid models (PHEV)

Overall, the number of new registrations of electric vehicles has accelerated quickly. Between 2020 and 2021, the electric car stock in Germany has more than doubled from almost 600.000 cars to 1.27 million cars. This corresponds to a share of around 2.6 percent of the total passenger car population. It is interesting to note that the volume of new PHEV registrations has reversed in favor of BEVs since August 2021. Also in 2022, more BEVs than PHEVs are newly registered each month.

Scenario 2030: According to a scenario assumed in the study, there will be over 11 million battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) on German roads in 2030. This corresponds to a quarter of the total number of passenger cars. New registrations of plug-in hybrid cars (PHEVs) will total just under 4.8 million in 2030, accounting for a market share of around 10 percent.

In addition, according to the 2030 scenario: Electric vehicles will become cheaper compared to combustion models. Relative vehicle’s costs will decrease significantly mainly due to lower battery costs.

“Many consumers are still sceptical about new mobility. It is important to create customer experience around the new fields of the future which increase acceptance. Especially the young generation is approachable for this because they are already much more open to new technologies and networked mobility.”

Prof. Dr. Stefan Bratzel, Director Center of Automotive Management (CAM)

Connected Car – software beats hardware

When it comes to the innovation potential and –activity of the 28 global automotive manufacturers analyzed (including Volkswagen AG, BMW Group, Mercedes Benz Group, Toyota, Tesla, Honda, Stellantis, Ford), the Connected Car segment is of high significance. Specifically, the 28 global automotive manufacturers generated nearly 3000 innovations across the three subsectors „User Interface“(+ 67 percent), „Autonomic driving“ (+ 6 percent) und „Connectivity“ (+ 18 percent) from 2016-2021. These quantitative innovation trends of the automotive manufacturers reflect the disruptive shifts in the future fields.

The future question will be: how do you keep it with the previously highly valued hardware? The study shows a qualitative shift from a hardware orientation, and thus the focus of customers on fixed equipment features, to an increasingly strong software and service orientation. Connected services also offer considerable sales potential.

Scenario 2030: this results in a recurring sales volume of approximately 900 to 1000 euro per year and car. The global Connected Services market volume is estimated at over 200 billion euros in total. The digital ecosystem of connected service providers will play an increasingly important role – with diverse opportunities also for providers of financing and hedging products in the area of mobility.

Surprise in mobility behavior: younger people rediscover own car

The results of the analysis in the area of mobility services and mobility behavior are surprising. The importance of private cars is only slightly declining in Germany. Based on their current mobility situation, a private car is important to 69 percent of respondents, including 42 percent who say that they rely on their own car. It is striking that significantly more young city dwellers aged 18 to 34 say that they are dependent on their own car than four years ago. Currently, 26 percent of respondents in this age group say this (compared with 17 percent in 2018). Overall, 57 percent of young urban respondents consider their private car to be “very important” or “important”. This also represents a significant increase compared with 2018 (45 percent).

With regard to free-floating car sharing (vehicles that can be booked freely in the urban area), a fatigue in usage is emerging. Willingness to use car sharing declined between 2018 and 2022. In 2022, only 26 percent of respondents can imagine using free-floating car sharing (in comparison 2018: 34 percent).

BNP Paribas Cardif sees the study results as a confirmation of its own course of expanding its own “Keep on Moving” product family together with existing and new partnerships. This protects the mobility of a mobile generation by ensuring that they do not have to worry about mobility costs in the event of temporary incapacity to work or involuntary unemployment.

Methodology

Methodologically, this study is based on evaluations of innovation trends of 28 global manufacturers from the CAM AutomotiveINNOVATIONS Database. In addition, meta-analyses of current CAM studies were carried out and a quantitative survey was conducted in cooperation with YouGov to obtain consumers’ assessments of mobility. The current study follows on from the joint study conducted in 2018: “Financing and Securing New Mobility Concepts”. The focus is on trends in mobility behavior in Germany.

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